I will present some of the mathematics we have been using at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in the UW School of Medicine to project the global course of the COVID outbreak and the demands it may put on local health systems.
Abraham Flaxman, PhD, is an Associate Professor of Health Metrics Sciences at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. He is currently leading the development of a simulation platform to derive "what-if" results from Global Burden of Disease estimates and is engaged in methodological and operational research on verbal autopsy. Dr. Flaxman has previously designed software tools such as DisMod-MR that IHME uses to estimate the Global Burden of Disease, and the Bednet Stock-and-Flow Model, which has produced estimates of insecticide-treated net coverage in sub-Saharan Africa. This work uses Integrative Systems Modeling to combine a system dynamics model of process with a statistical model of data to bring together all available sources of information.
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